McVerry Report

An Overview of Stock, ETF, Commodity & Market Timing Blogs, Web Sites and Other Resources With A Focus On Technical Analysis

C'est Toujours Quelque Chose

Editor:  Jos. R. McVerry, et al.

5-Day U.S. Market Forecast
Current Price
Data as of
[No canvas support]

How It Works

Using an artificial intelligence-like algorithm I am trying to estimate prices for leverage etfs and some indexes. The algorithm is based on pattern matching price changes relative to the change in price of other various stocks, etfs, indexes, etc.. So I use a k-nearest neighbors algorithm that uses distance weighting by division.

  • Using a complete history of selected indexes with the same period of price changes as the queried item.
  • Find the 5 best 3 day period that matches the current 3 day period for each of the selected. To remove a possible outlier - it drops the highest (or over valued comparison) of each index from each daily period.
  • These 5 best point to the queried item's next price change relative to their period.
  • Calculate and use a weighted average of the price changes to provide a possible price change for the queried item.

Bottom line - it's looking at related 3 day trends. Then uses the 5 best for its guess. But as we all know - previous results do not guarantee future outcomes.

One of the many problems with this scheme is that there is not enough data points.

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