The Technology sector has the most bearish forecast for the next 30 trading days, with an average score of 2.70. In this sector, $USD may have the lowest results. Coming in second with a weak prospect is the Commodities sector in the 1 to 4-day period with a computed strength of 1.79. The models expect the ETF $DBC to finish the lowest in this group.
To follow up Monday’s post, the models still have the Chinese stock market in a bullish light through the middle of August.
$YANG is Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3X Shares
$CHAU is Direxion Daily CSI 300 China A Share Bull 2X Shares
$YINN is Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X Shares
This bullish call remains surprising to me, considering how stock markets worldwide are in almost a freefall. We’ll see.
I was going through my daily routine of reading other blog sites. While on one of my favorites, Slope of Hope, I noticed several comments from Slopers about how they are selling China by selling the ETF $YINN, Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X Shares. So I decided to see what the models said about $YINN and its counterpart inverse $YANG, Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3X Shares. The models disagree. The models say buy $YINN. The models expect a 10-15% increase in $YINN over the next 30 trading days. Below is the Estimated Percentage Change chart for $YINN and $YANG with data subscribers to ETF Expectations get in a spreadsheet. We’ll see.
Based on the corresponding ETF averages, let’s look at last night’s sector strength chart; the overall average remains a solid bearish value of 3.12.
A review of the individual charts has only two charts interesting to me; they are Biotechnology and Health Care. What catches my eye is that they both show moderate bullishness at the start of August. Here is Biotech with an overall average of 4.16. See the dip in the second week of July; the models predict its strength to the bullish side from there. Likewise, Health Care has a weaker average of 3.12, showing a similar pattern. As for the rest of the sectors, Energy has an average of 3.62 and shows a flat pattern. Precious Metals and Miners follow Energy with an average of 3.5. Next is Non-US stocks with a computed score of 3.27. This is followed by Commodities, averaging a value of 3.22, with a predicted up-trend line. Bonds are up next with a value of 2.95. Then Real Estate at 2.85. Technology moves up to the tenth slot with a computed value of 2.8. Slipping into eleventh is the Consumer sector with a score of 2.62. Then US Stocks at 2.56. And finally, the Financial sector finishes the group with a low score of 2.48.
So all thirteen sectors tracked by the models remain bearish.
Let’s look at last night’s sector strength chart based on the corresponding ETF averages; this week’s overall average has a solid bearish value of 3.11. Do you see the light at the end of this bear market tunnel? I do. I see the oncoming market crash.
Let’s review the individual charts. The best is the Precious Metals and Miners, with an average 30-day score of 4.14. The Energy sector follows with a score of 4.02. The third sector is Commodities, scoring 3.64. Following Commodities is the Bond sector with an average of 3.5. The Non-US Stock Market follows with an average of 3.47 and Emerging Markets with 3.43. Seventh on the list is the Biotechnology sector scoring an even 3.0. Then Health Care follows with a score of 2.85. The Financial sector closely follows Health Care by scoring 2.82. Up next is Real Estate, scoring 2.71. And the last three are the Consumer sector, with 2.4, US Stocks, with 2.34, and the Technology sector, with 2.16.
So all thirteen sectors tracked by the models are bearish.
For individual ETF picks go to http://mcverryreport.com/forecast
The above chart is red except for the line representing the Energy sector. But even Energy is starting to show bear numbers too.
For individual ETF picks for the next 30 trading days go to http://mcverryreport.com/forecast
Let’s look at last night’s sector strength chart based on the corresponding ETF averages; this week’s overall average has a strong bearish value of 3.91; are you surprised? 3.91 is worse than last week’s 4.38.
Two of the thirteen sectors tracked this week are in the bullish zone; there were four bullish sectors last week. The bullish sectors are Energy and Commodities The Financials sector and Foreign Stock Markets joined the bearish sectors from last week’s group.
Reviewing the individual charts, Energy has an average score of 6.06, with most of its strength starting in a little more than a week. The Commodities sector barely makes it into the bull category with a score of 4.58, let’s put some emphasis on the words – barely makes it into the bullish category.
Starting with the bearish sectors first is Non-US Stock Markets with a score of 4.18. Then follows Emerging Markets, averaging at 3.92. The third bearish sector is Real Estate, with a score of 3.87. Up next is the Bond sector, with a score of 3.71. Closely following Bonds is the Financial Sector with a score of 3.7. The Biotechnology sector scores 3.69. In quick succession, there are Precious Metals and Miners at 3.66, the Consumer Sector at 3.63, and Health Care with a score of 3.61. Tenth in the bearish group is US Stocks, with a score of 3.51. And finally, the last sector is Technology, with a meager score of 2.7. The interesting aspect about the Tech numbers is that the daily number never goes into the bullish zone. Tech is the only sector that does that.
Let’s look at last night’s sector strength chart based on the corresponding ETF averages; this week’s overall average is still bearish with a value of 4.38, which is better than last week’s 4.00.
This week, four of the thirteen sectors tracked are in the bullish zone; there were only two bullish sectors last week. The bullish sectors are Energy, Commodities, Financials, and Foreign Stock Markets. The bearish sectors are Real Estate, Emerging Markets, Bonds, Health Care, US Stocks, Tech, Metals & Miners, Consumer, and Biotech.
Looking at the individual charts; Energy comes in with an average score of 6.2, with most of its strength at the end of this month. The Commodities sector scores 5.16 and peaks twice; once next week and the second time after the fourth of July. The Financial sector is third with a score of 4.97 but falls off quickly starting in July. And the last bullish sector is the International Stock Market scoring a weak bullish number of 4.67.
Starting with the bearish sectors first is Real Estate with a score of 4.46; it was a bullish sector last week. Then follows Emerging Markets, averaging at 4.36. The third bearish sector is Bond Sector, with a score of 4.10. Following Bonds is the Health Care Sector also with a score of 4.10. Fifth in the bearish group is US Stock Market, with an average 30-day score of 4.00. US Stocks are closely the Technology sector with a score of 3.86. Tech is followed by the Precious Metals and Miners sector, scoring 3.84. The eighth sector is the Consumer sector, with a score of 3.72. And finally, the last sector is Biotechnology at 3.54.
So nine out of the thirteen sectors, the models’ track are bearish, and the remaining four are bullish.
Let’s look at last night’s sector strength chart based on the corresponding ETF averages; this week’s overall average is still bearish with a value of 4.00, which is up marginally from last week’s 3.88.
Since the bearish and bullish calls for this week are the same as they have been for the past several weeks, I will do the sector review differently. Today I present the 30-day average for each sector from bullish to bearish. To start things off, and as it has been for the past six weeks, the Energy sector has a weak bullish number at 5.57. As I have mentioned in previous videos, I prefer to see a number above 6.5.
Coming in second on the bullish side, for the third week in a row, is the Real Estate sector. Its average value is 4.69, which is barely above the neutral number of 4.5.
Starting with the bearish sectors first is Commodities with a score of 4.27. Then follows the Financial sector, averaging at 4.15. The third bearish sector is Health Care, with a score of 4.11. Following Health Care is the International Markets with a value of an even 4. Fifth in the bearish group is Precious Metals and Miners, with an average 30-day score of 3.88. The Bond sector closely follows Metals and Miners with a score of 3.87. Bonds are followed by Emerging markets, scoring 3.73. The eighth sector is the US Stock Market, with a score of 3.64. At third to last is the Consumer sector, which averages a 3.63. And finally, the last two sectors are Biotechnology at 3.23 and Technology at 3.20.
So eleven out of the thirteen sectors, the models’ track, are bearish, and the two bullish sectors are barely bullish.
Like the battery rabbit, it just keeps going and going. $UNG and $BOIL have appeared as top picks for the past several weeks by the ETF Expectation models, and as of last night, they still are.
I have read that the Europeans are buying up American natural gas by the boatload due to the Ukraine-Russian war. I will use that to confirm the continuing price surge.