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Markets Overall

September Stock Market Safe Haves May Be Energy and BioTech.

Heck of a sell-off on Friday, wasn’t it? This coming Monday could be interesting. While I think that on Monday, the sell-off will continue, the models predict most sectors to be positive. The overall 30-day score, the average of all the sectors, remains unchanged. This week’s average is 4.07. So the models are still bearish.

For the third week in a row, the Energy sector is in the number one spot with the most bullish number. Energy’s 30-day average score is 5.16, down from 5.33. The models continue to look for a peak during the first week and the second week of September. The Biotechnology sector comes in second with an average score of 4.56, slightly above the neutral number of 4.5. The models have Commodities with some strength during the third week of September.

The three sectors at the bottom of the list are Technology with a score of 3.62, the Consumer sector scoring 3.63, and Bonds with a score of 3.79.

So, like the past seven weeks, the models are bearish, except for Energy.

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Markets Overall

Stock Market Models Get More Bearish

The overall 30-day score, which is the average of all the sectors, has fallen. This week’s average is 4.07, down from last week’s average of 4.22. So the models are still bearish.

For the second week in a row, the Energy sector is in the number one spot with the most bullish number. Energy’s 30-day average score is 5.33, up from 5.12. Look for a peak during the first week of September. The Commodities sector comes in second with an average score of 4.57, slightly above the neutral number of 4.5. The models have Commodities with some strength during the second and third week of September.

The three sectors at the bottom of the list are the US Stock Market with a score of 3.81, the Technology sector scoring 3.78, and Emerging Markets with a score of 3.68.

So, like the past six weeks, the models are bearish, except for Energy.

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Markets Overall Sectors In Particular

Energy Top Pick For The Next 30 Days.

So the overall 30-day average has improved from last week’s 3.87. This week the models give us an average of 4.22, which is still bearish. The number needs to get above 4.5 to be bullish to provide a positive outlook.

For the second week in a row, the Financial sector, scoring 3.59, has the worst 30-day average score. The U.S. Stock Market has the second worst average score at 3.77.

The Energy sector moved back to the number one spot as the sector with the most bullish number. Energy’s 30-day average score is 5.12, up from 4.27. And Biotechnology which was number one last week, is down to second with a score of 4.59, down from 4.83. With a score of 4.59, it is bearly bullish.

So, like the past five weeks, the models remain primarily bearish.

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Markets Overall

Outlook: Rough and Tumble Through The Middle of September

Let’s look at last night’s sector strength chart; the overall average has declined to 3.87 from the previous week’s 4.12. With the bear/bull line at 4.5, the overall score for the next six weeks fell further into the bearish zone.

This week’s sector with the worst score is the Financial sector, scoring 2.58. Which is followed by the Real Estate sector. Real Estate’s 30-day score is 3.16

The Biotechnology sector moved from the second best to first by getting a score of 4.83. Which is just bearly into the bullish zone. The Energy sector, which was the best last week, fell to fourth; it scored 4.27, which is bearish but does show some strength from August 17 until the end of the month. The Bond sector moved to second place and is in the bullish zone with a score of 4.54.

Precious Metals and Miners score 4.43; Tuesday could be interesting for this sector. Health Care has the fifth highest score at 3.94, followed by Non-US Stock Markets at 3.92. Technology is next with a score of 3.89, US Stocks at 3.81, Commodities score 3.76, Emerging Markets record a 3.60, and the Consumer sector’s 30-day average score is 3.58

So, like the past four weeks, the models generally expect a downside to the markets through August until September 19. The one exception is Biotechnology.

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Markets Overall Sectors In Particular

Got Gold? I Hope Not

Using data from tonight’s ETF Expectation report, I created the above chart, which shows the expected strength moves for four gold-related ETFs. Of the four, only one, $GLL, has an up-trend. $GLL is an inverse ETF. So the models expect gold to continue the downward track it has been exhibiting all year.

The models are bearish on all Precious Metal ETFs, sans the inverse ones.