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Markets Overall

So Was Wednesday’s Stock Market Action Just A Dead-Cat Bounce?

It sure looks like it, and the Wednesday top may be an important one for the Elliot Wave crowd.

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Markets Overall Uncategorized

The Stock Market Highs Are Lost.

Well, if it hasn’t already, the DJIA is just about to go below the Trump-era high mark. So any recovery we’ve seen with the Biden administration is completely lost.

The models look out 30 trading days, so they are now predicting strength numbers through the beginning of November. Let’s take a look. For the overall 30-day period, the models remain entirely in the bear camp. Friday night’s numbers fell again from the previous week’s average. This week the average is 3.21; last week, it was 3.39. For the fourth week in a row, no sector with an average above 4.5 in the bullish zone.

The sector with the highest score, Health Care, is not close to getting a bullish call with a score of 4.03.

The sector with the worst score is Technology, with an average of 2.16. And the Bond sector continues to get awful scores; this week, Bonds average fell to 2.41. Another sector in the two’s is Commodities with a score of 2.74.

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Markets Overall

The Dow Is About To Break Below the Trump High.

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Markets Overall

Bonds Have The Worst Outlook

I think the news from FedEx on Friday morning is a significant indicator of the market’s future. One of the greatest Stock Market prognosticators of all time, Charles Dow, used the Transportation index as his leading indicator for the overall market. FedEx is one of the top components of the Transportation index.

In the overall 30-day period, the models remain entirely in the bear camp. Friday night’s numbers show the overall average fell from last week’s 3.46 to 3.39. For the third week in a row, no sector is above 4.5, which is the bullish zone.

The sector with the highest 30-day average is Energy. The models score this at 4.44, just below the neutral mark of 4.5.

The sector with the worst score is Bonds. With an average of 2.48, And the Technology sector continues to get awful scores, this week Tech has an average of 2.62.

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Markets Overall

Despite The End Of Week Bounce, The Models Remain Bearish

A good recovery in the markets from Wednesday on. I didn’t expect that to happen. The models suggest that the buying should continue on Monday and maybe into Tuesday. But for the overall 30-day period, the models remain fully in the bear camp. Friday night’s numbers show the overall average up slightly at 3.69 from last week’s 3.46. And like last week’s, no sectors show an average in the bullish zone. The bullish zone Sept 10 2022is above 4.5.

For the second week in a row, the Biotech sector has the best 30-day score; but it is a bearish 4.29. The models are still predicting some good numbers this week and early October. The models expect the Real Estate sector to perform well over the next two to three weeks.

The sector with the worst score is Commodities. With an average of 2.88, I don’t expect much good news coming out of that sector for the next six weeks. And the Technology sector is showing bearish numbers for most of the 30 days in the study.

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Sectors In Particular

China – Still Seeing Red

After reading a negative article in yesterday’s WSJ, I decided to see what my models say about the Chinese ETFs they track. The models agree, they, too, are down on the Chinese stock market.

Looking at the chart above, the two inverse ETFs, $FXP and $YANG stay in the bullish zone, the area above 4.5, for most of the tracking period. While the other four ETFs, non-inverse, remain bearish. There is one small period, from Sept. 18 through the 20th, in which both camps flip to the other side, but otherwise, they are calling for a continuing bearish Chinese stock market.

For more ETF picks go to https://mcverryreport.com/forecast

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Markets Overall Uncategorized

All Sectors Indicate The Sell-Off To Continue.

There was a heck of a sell-off this week. I hope you didn’t get caught in the sucker’s rally on Friday morning. I sort of did; I picked up three inverse ETFs early in the week and set up some 5% trailing stops on them; Friday morning, the stops were executed for a gain, but by Friday afternoon, I would have been better off if the sales didn’t execute.

Based on the models, the sell-off will continue through October. The overall 30-day score, the average of all the sectors, remains unchanged. This week’s average fell dramatically to 3.46 from last week’s 4.07. So the models are very bearish.

No sectors are showing an average in the bullish zone. The bullish zone is above 4.5.

The Energy sector’s average, which had been strong for the previous three weeks, took a big step down to a score of 3.69.

The Biotech sector is the only sector showing green on a daily basis, but even its 30-day score is bearish at 4.30. The models predict some good numbers start in October.

The sector with the worst score is Technology. With an average of 2.66, I don’t expect much good news coming out of that sector for the next six weeks.

And watch out for some bad numbers this coming week in Commodities and the U.S. Stock Market.