Remaining Neutral

For two weeks in a row, I have been bearish. And for two weeks in a row, the indexes have proven me wrong.

Let's take a look at the chart based on what the models see for the next six weeks. enter image description here While no sector is strong in either the bull or bearish sense, some do show some strength and weakness. The tech sector has the strongest bullish score that should occur during the next four trading days. Commodities have some strong numbers occurring next week.

Real estate has the weakest numbers occurring in the final weeks of this month and lastly, Bonds look weak throughout most of the 6 weeks.

Bottom line - the charts remain mostly neutral.

What's UP with the Real Estate Sector

Last week I was a bear; I was wrong as several indexes took to new highs.

Let's look at the chart based on what the models see for the next six weeks; they remain neutral to bearish. enter image description here What stands out are the sixes in Real Estate for next week, with some echoing 5s in the following week. But as you can see further out, Real Estate still is mainly bearish.

Models Remain Bearish To Neutral

Last week I was looking for this past week to be somewhat flat. Looking at the DOW chart, it was until very late on Friday afternoon.
enter image description here Let's take a look at the chart based on what the models see for the next six weeks, and the models continue to be on the bearish side. I consider this to be a relatively bearish chart.

Just like last week - for the next five days, there are no numbers in the sixes. So I consider further selling at least through the entire week. I am not looking for any improvement. enter image description here

As usual, I will avoid the Bond sector, Metals & Miners, Emerging Markets, and Real Estate.

Bottom line- for all sectors, the models have turned bearish for the next six weeks. I run similar models for my retirement accounts with Fidelity Funds, and those models, too, are more bearish and neutral than bullish.

Models Have Gone Bearish On Most Sectors

I was looking for this past week to be bullish. And it was until late Thursday, and then, Powell spoke.

Let's take a look at the chart based on what the models see for the next 6 weeks, and unlike last weekend's chart, the numbers are more bearish. The highest numbers I can see are some 6.1s and 6.2s, very few, and really 6 is a neutral number.

For the next 5 days, there are no numbers in the sixes and Monday a bunch in the upper twos, so I consider further selling at least through the early part of the week. For the rest of the week, the models don't expect any improvement.

Of note is the 2.1 in the Commodities sector on day 22. That quite bearish, so expect changes in commodities in the next 3 to 4 weeks.

As usual, I will avoid the Bond sector, Metals & Miners and what just popped up is the Emerging Market sector, which last week was reported by me to be bullish, so that has changed.

Bottom line- for all sectors, the models have turned bearish for the next 6 weeks.enter image description here

Bullish On Most Sectors For Next 2 Weeks.

This past week was bullish, thanks to the latest gift from the government. If you follow my text blog, you know that I recommend purchasing retail-related ETFs for the next several weeks because of the bailout. enter image description here Let's take a look at the chart based on what the models see for the next 6 weeks, and like last weekend's chart, the numbers are neutral. The highest number numbers are in the low sixes, and they appear in the first five days. A strong buy number would be 7.5 or higher. As for bearish numbers, the lowest is in the low 3's at about 4 weeks out, and those numbers too are not very strong. A strong sell number would be 2.5 or lower.

Next week should continue to be positive, and that positiveness should continue through the end of the month.

As usual, the weak sell signs are in bonds, metals & miners, and real estate.

Retail Retail Retail - Buy Buy Buy

Now that the new Corona Virus stimulus bill has passed it is time for the markets to react. I think the reaction will be in the Retail sector. Money to spend and more people coming out of hiding will mean more money to the retailers.

Also, the models love retail-related ETFs. Below are two charts for two ETFs. The outlook for the next 30 days of both ETFs are bullish.

SPDR S&P Retail ETF  XRT

Direxion Daily Retail Bull 3x Shares RETL

Models Like The Financials and The General Markets Over The Next 6 Trading Weeks.

The Financial sector has the best prospect in the 13 to 16 day period. The estimated top ETF in that category for the mentioned period is $FAS. Next is followed by the Index sector with a better than average forecast for the same period. The estimated top ETF in this sector for that period is $UMDD.

In contrast, the Metals & Miners sector has the most underperforming outlook in the 1 to 4 day period; in this sector,enter image description here $DGP may have the lowest results. Coming in second with a weak outlook is the Real Estate sector for the period of 25 to 28 with the ETF $DRN expected to finish the worst in this group.

I Am Avoiding Bonds And Real Estate ETFs

The Technology sector has the best outlook in the 22 to 25 day period. The estimated best ETF in that sector for the mentioned period is $XLK. Next is followed by the Health Care sector with a good forecast for the same period. The estimated top ETF in this sector for that period is $XHS. enter image description here On the sell side, the Real Estate sector has the most underperforming outlook in the 21 to 24 day period; in this sector, $IYR may have the lowest results. Bonds have a very poor outlook over most of the next 25 trading days.

ETF forecasts available at mcverryreport.com/forecast

Across Most Sectors The Next Several Days Are Looking Weak

The Biotech sector has the best prospect in the 25 to 28 day period. The estimated top ETF in that category for the mentioned period is $XBI. Next is followed by the Financial sector with a good forecast for the same period. The estimated best ETF in this sector for that period is $KBE. enter image description here On the sell side, the Real Estate sector has the most underperforming outlook in the 19 to 22 day period; in this sector, $VNQ may have the worst results.