The Models Are Not Positive About the Next Five Market Days.

Here is a snippet of the next six days of estimates from last night's run. The models do not expect much positive movement in any sector over the next five days. We will see. enter image description here

The Real Estate sector has the best overall forecast for the next 30 trading days, with an average score of 5.66. And the Real Estate sector has a good short-term prediction, which should occur in 24 to 27 days. The computed average is 6.48. The estimated best ETF in that sector for that period is $URE. Next is followed by the Health Care sector with a good forecast in 22 to 25 days. The computed average is 6.43. The estimated top ETF in this sector for the period is $CURE. enter image description here In contrast, the Metals & Miners sector has the worst overall view for the next 30 trading days, with an average score of 3.96. The Commodities sector has a poor prospect in the 1 to 4 day period; the computed average is 3.28. In this sector, $XLB may have the worst results. Coming in second with a weak prospect is the U.S. Stock Mkt sector in 2 to 5 days. The computed average is 3.58. The models expect the ETF $XLI to finish the lowest in this group.

Should We Expect Another Down Week

We have had two down-market weeks, and other stock market analysts are calling for next week to be another down week. Jeff Hirsch at the Almanac Trader and Rob Hanna at Quantifiable Edges present historical data showing that the average market returns will be weak following the third week of September. We'll see.

Let's look at last night's chart; the models' predictions are up from the previous week's numbers. The overall average is 5.32; the previous week's average was 5.13. enter image description here The Real Estate sector has the best overall forecast for the next 30 trading days, with an average score of 6.23. And the Real Estate sector has a good short-term prediction, which should occur in 26 to 29 days. The computed average is 7.51. The estimated top ETF in that category for that period is $IYR.

On the sell side, the Energy sector has the worst overall view for the next 30 trading days, with an average score of 4.04. Also, the Energy sector has a poor prospect in the 27 to 30 day period; the computed average is 3.04. In this sector, $ERX may have the worst results.

Tech Takes Top Pick For The Next Six Weeks, But Not By Much.

The Technology sector has the best overall forecast for the next 30 trading days, with an average score of 5.74, which is not very strong. The Real Estate sector has the best short-term prospect, which should occur in 23 to 26 days. The computed average is 6.52. The estimated top ETF in that category for that period is $VNQ. Next is followed by the Health Care sector with a good forecast in 20 to 23 days. The computed average is 6.31. The estimated best ETF in this sector for the period is $XLV. enter image description here In contrast, the Metals & Miners sector has the worst overall view for the next 30 trading days, with an average score of 4.44, neutral is 4.5. Also, the Metals & Miners sector has a poor prospect in the 27 to 30 day period; the computed average is 3.72. In this sector, $GDX may have the worst results. Coming in second with a weak prospect is the Financial sector in 9 to 12 days. The computed average is 3.76. The models expect the ETF $KRE to finish the lowest in this group.

Five Down Days - What's Next

So the markets have had five consecutive down days, which has many analysts concerned. While my models don't indicate any significant correction coming up, I am apprehensive. Here's why. Besides the models I use for the ETF Expectations report, I run algorithms using Monte Carlo and QLearning methodologies. Here is the output from the algorithms run that ran last night. enter image description here These methods are showing bearish calls for the overall market. The calls target range is one week. Out of the twenty studies done, only three say stay in stock calls, and two are not very strong. For clarification, some calls have high "to stocks" percentages; those calls are for Inverse ETFs, which are considered bearish calls for the overall market.

Let's look at last night's chart; the models' predictions are up from the previous week's numbers. The overall average is 5.13; the last week's average was 4.5.enter image description here

The Health Care sector has the best overall forecast for the next 30 trading days, with an average score of 5.60. The Real Estate sector has a good short-term prospect, which should occur in 23 to 30 days. The computed average is 6.69. The estimated top ETF in that category for that period is $URE. Next is followed by the Health Care sector with a better than average forecast in 6 to 15 days. The estimated top ETF in this sector for the period is $XLV.

In contrast, the Metals & Miners sector has the worst overall view for the next 30 trading days, with an average score of 3.49. The Commodities sector has an underperforming prospect in the 16 to 20 day period; The computed average is 2.80. In this sector, $XLB may have the lowest results. Coming in second with a weak prospect is the Energy sector in 19 to 29 days, with the ETF $IYE expected to finish the worst in this group.

Metals And Miners, Commodities and Energy Are On The Sell Side For Next 30 Trading Days.

The Metals & Miners sector has the worst overall view for the next 30 trading days, with an average score of 3.93. The Commodities sector has an underperforming prospect in the 26 to 29 day period; the computed average is 3.11. In this sector, $XLB may have the lowest results. Coming in second with a weak prospect is the Energy sector in 22 to 25 days. The computed average is 3.23. The models expect the ETF $XOP to finish the worst in this group. enter image description here On the buy-side, the Health Care sector has the best overall forecast for the next 30 trading days, with an average score of 5.25. The Real Estate sector has a good short-term prediction, which should occur in 27 to 30 days. The computed average is 6.84. The estimated top ETF in that category for that period is $IYR.

I Am Avoiding The Precious Metals and Miners Sectors.

The models' predictions are down from the previous week's numbers. The overall average is 4.50, which is less than last week's 5.07.

The Metals & Miners sector has the worst overall view for the next 30 trading days, with an average score of 3.49. enter image description hereThe Commodities sector has an underperforming prospect in the 17 to 20 day period; The computed average is 2.80. In this sector, $XLB may have the lowest results. Coming in second with a weak prospect is the Energy sector in 19 to 25 days, with the ETF $IYE expected to finish the worst in this group.

In contrast, the Health Care sector has the best overall forecast for the next 30 trading days, with an average score of 5.60. The Real Estate sector has a good short-term prospect, which should occur in 25 to 30 days. The computed average is 6.69. The estimated top ETF in that category for that period is $URE. Next is followed by the Health Care sector with a better than average forecast in 8 to 15 days. The estimated top ETF in this sector for the period is $XLV.

The Financial Sector Moves To The Top For Next Six Trading Weeks

The Financial sector has the best overall forecast for the next 30 trading days, with an average score of 5.51. And the Financial sector has the best short-term prospect, which should occur in 14 to 17 days. The computed average is 6.29. The estimated best ETF in that sector for that period is $KRE. enter image description here In contrast, the Metals & Miners sector has the worst overall view for the next 30 trading days with an average score of 3.72. The Energy sector has an underperforming prospect in the 22 to 25 day period; The computed average is 2.84. In this sector, $VDE may have the worst results. Coming in second with a weak prospect is the Metals & Miners sector in 16 to 19 days, with the ETF $GDX expected to finish the lowest in this group.

The Metal and Miners Sector Along With Commodities Have Poor Outlooks.

The Metals & Miners sector has the worst overall view for the next 30 trading days, with an average score of 3.87. The Commodities sector has an underperforming prospect in the 20 to 23 day period; The computed average is 2.79. In this sector, $XLB may have the worst results. Coming in second with a weak prospect is the Metals & Miners sector in 19 to 22 days, with the ETF $NUGT expected to finish the lowest in this group. enter image description here In contrast, the U.S. Stock Mkt sector has the best overall forecast for the next 30 trading days, with an average score of 5.81. The Biotech sector has the best short-term prediction, which should occur in 22 to 25 days. The computed average is 6.66. The estimated top ETF in that category for that period is $IHI.

Monday May Be Down In The US Markets

Let's look at last night's chart; the models' predictions are better than the previous week's numbers. The overall average is 5.07, which is up from last week's 4.91. enter image description here I picked out model calls from several U.S. Market ETFs. It shows that the start of next week could be weak. Any number below 4.5 is bearish. The strength numbers represent the models' calls for Monday and Tuesday.
enter image description here Back to last night's chart. The Financial sector has the best overall forecast for the next 30 trading days, with an average score of 5.96. The Biotech industry has the best short-term prediction, which should occur in 18 to 25 days. The computed average is 6.83. The estimated best ETF in that sector for that period is $IHI.enter image description here Next is followed by the Financial sector with a better than average forecast in 12 to 20 days. The estimated top ETF in this sector for the period is $XLF.enter image description here

On the sell side, the Emerging Market sector has the worst overall view for the next 30 trading days with an average score of 4.05. The Commodities sector has an underperforming prospect in the 19 to 23 day period; The computed average is 2.74. In this sector, $XLB may have the lowest results. enter image description here

Health Care and Tech On Top.

Looking at last night's chart, the models' predictions are better than the previous week's numbers. The overall average is 4.91, which is up from last week's 4.80. enter image description here I was tracking some bearish numbers with the Q-related ETFs for the past several weeks. According to the previous charts, the bearish event would be next week. Those bearish numbers are no longer showing up.

Back to last night's chart. The Health Care sector has the best overall forecast for the next 30 trading days, with an average score of 5.70. And the Health Care sector has a good short-term prospect, which should occur in 21 to 24 days. The computed average is 6.49. The estimated best ETF in that sector for that period is $CURE. Next is followed by the Technology sector with a good forecast in 24 to 27 days. The estimated top ETF in this sector for the period is $TECL.

On the sell side, the Metals & Miners sector has the worst overall view for the next 30 trading days. It scores 4.32. The Real Estate sector has a poor prospect in the 7 to 10 day period; The computed average is 3.22. In this sector, $IYR may have the worst results.