The Metals & Miners sector has the worst overall view for the next 30 trading days, with an average score of 3.87. The Commodities sector has an underperforming prospect in the 20 to 23 day period; The computed average is 2.79. In this sector, $XLB may have the worst results. Coming in second with a weak prospect is the Metals & Miners sector in 19 to 22 days, with the ETF $NUGT expected to finish the lowest in this group. In contrast, the U.S. Stock Mkt sector has the best overall forecast for the next 30 trading days, with an average score of 5.81. The Biotech sector has the best short-term prediction, which should occur in 22 to 25 days. The computed average is 6.66. The estimated top ETF in that category for that period is $IHI.
Last week's call was a bear call, and with Powell's Fed presser on Thursday, he made it one on Friday.
Looking at last night's chart, we can see that the models continue to be bearish for the next two weeks. And then some.
The Metals and Miners sector has no positive numbers for the next six trading weeks. This situation is terrible for me since I purchased some palladium ETFs on Thursday. I will exit that trade come Monday morning. The Real Estate sector has an underperforming outlook in the 4 to 7 day period; In this sector, $VNQ may have the lowest results. Another sector with a weak view is Commodities. The weakness should occur in 1 to 4 days. The models expect the ETF $DBC to finish the lowest in this group.
The Technology sector has the best outlook, which should happen in 21 to 24 days. The estimated best ETF in that sector for that period is $SOXL.
I use the Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) to signal when to buy and sell ETFs and stocks. Lately, the SMI for the real estate ETFs has shown a bearish signal. Below is the chart for $URE. The secondary chart is the SMI. In the SMI chart, the SMI line and the signal line are above 40 and have crossed. This indicates a selling situation. As you can see, this situation occurred several times: early May, around March 21st, and around February 21st. While the selling at those dates wasn't solid (see the follow-through price action), the signals do show some selling opportunities. Likewise, the reversed cross-over actions of mid-January, early March, and mid-May provide some buy signals.
For review, the past several weeks, the models have been positive on financials. Looking at the 30-day chart for the Spider Financial ETF XLF, you can see that it has performed well.
So let's switch over to last night's picks. And just as with the previous week's chart, there is hardly any red highlighting which indicates that the models are bullish for the next six trading weeks.
The US Stock Market Index has the best prospect, which should occur in the 22 to 25 day period. The computed average is 6.45, which may be considered slightly bullish. The estimated top ETF in that category for the same period is $XLI. Next is followed by the Financial sector with a good forecast for the period of 23 to 26 days. The estimated best ETF in this sector for that period is $UYG.
Looks like the models' bullish calls were a day early. As of 11:30 $FCG is up 3.3%.
From last night's ETF Expectation's report, $FCG scored a perfect 9. That means all 6 models gave this ETF the highest bullish move. The call is just for today, and as a caveat, out of the 30 days of calls - the next day's call is known to be the worst call of all. But when all the models make the same call for a particular day, it should be considered very strong. A perfect 9 score is seldom seen, so let's pay attention and see how it pans out.
And for what it's worth, the next day's score for $FCG is 8.2. So there should be some carry-over.
Also, note that this ETF is at a 6 month high.
The average percentage change for a 9 call on $FCF is approximately 4%.
The strong bullish call for the Health Care sector has softened since my post from last weekend.
The estimated most under-performing sector is Energy in the 17 to 24 day period; in this sector $DIG may have the worst results.
All other sectors remain pretty much the same - neutral.
The Health Care sector has the greatest outlook in the 15 to 24 day period. The estimated best ETF in that sector for the mentioned period is $XHS. Next is followed by the Financial sector with a better than average forecast for the same period. The estimated best ETF in this sector for that period is $FAS.
The Technology sector may have the greatest outlook, occurring in the 5 to 14 day period. The estimated best ETF in that sector for the mentioned period should be $SMH.