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Stock Market Is Still Looking Down

For the next thirty trading days, the models predict the overall market to resume its downward trend. The average for all sectors for the 6-week period has fallen from 4.22 to 3.92.

As it has been for the past several weeks, the sector with the highest score is Energy. But, this week Energy’s average fell to 4.83 from last week’s 5.07.

The models say that the Technology sector should perform poorly. They score Tech at 1.55 starting on Monday. In this sector, $ROM may have the worst results. Coming in second with a weak prospect is the Consumer sector for the same period, with a computed average of 1.58. The models expect the ETF $XHB to finish the worst in this group.

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Some Sectors Are Looking Up

September was a tough month for the markets. From what I have read, most prognosticators are looking for a continuation through October, especially this coming Monday.

For the overall 30-day period, the models remain entirely in the bear camp. But Friday night’s numbers are up from the previous week‘s average. This week the average is 3.53; last week, it was 3.21. For the fifth week in a row, there is no sector with an average above 4.5 in the bullish zone.

The sector with the highest score, Biotechnology, almost gets a Bullish score. An average of 4.46 is barely below the neutral mark of 4.5. And for the later part of October and early November, Biotech gets daily scores in the 5’s. Last week’s top sector was Health Care. Health Care fell a bit with an average of 4.36. Health Care also has some bullish daily numbers at the end of the 30-day period.

What caught my eye was the strong green day occurring this coming Tuesday for Precious Metals and Miners. But, I prefer a continuation of similar numbers to make any judgment, and since 6.8 is standing as the sole bullish number for that period, I will ignore it.

The sector with the worst score is Energy, with an average of 2.90. And like last week, Commodities average remains in the 2’s with a score of 2.99.

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The Stock Market Highs Are Lost.

Well, if it hasn’t already, the DJIA is just about to go below the Trump-era high mark. So any recovery we’ve seen with the Biden administration is completely lost.

The models look out 30 trading days, so they are now predicting strength numbers through the beginning of November. Let’s take a look. For the overall 30-day period, the models remain entirely in the bear camp. Friday night’s numbers fell again from the previous week’s average. This week the average is 3.21; last week, it was 3.39. For the fourth week in a row, no sector with an average above 4.5 in the bullish zone.

The sector with the highest score, Health Care, is not close to getting a bullish call with a score of 4.03.

The sector with the worst score is Technology, with an average of 2.16. And the Bond sector continues to get awful scores; this week, Bonds average fell to 2.41. Another sector in the two’s is Commodities with a score of 2.74.

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All Sectors Indicate The Sell-Off To Continue.

There was a heck of a sell-off this week. I hope you didn’t get caught in the sucker’s rally on Friday morning. I sort of did; I picked up three inverse ETFs early in the week and set up some 5% trailing stops on them; Friday morning, the stops were executed for a gain, but by Friday afternoon, I would have been better off if the sales didn’t execute.

Based on the models, the sell-off will continue through October. The overall 30-day score, the average of all the sectors, remains unchanged. This week’s average fell dramatically to 3.46 from last week’s 4.07. So the models are very bearish.

No sectors are showing an average in the bullish zone. The bullish zone is above 4.5.

The Energy sector’s average, which had been strong for the previous three weeks, took a big step down to a score of 3.69.

The Biotech sector is the only sector showing green on a daily basis, but even its 30-day score is bearish at 4.30. The models predict some good numbers start in October.

The sector with the worst score is Technology. With an average of 2.66, I don’t expect much good news coming out of that sector for the next six weeks.

And watch out for some bad numbers this coming week in Commodities and the U.S. Stock Market.

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Technology and Commodities Have The Worst Forecast

The Technology sector has the most bearish forecast for the next 30 trading days, with an average score of 2.70. In this sector, $USD may have the lowest results. Coming in second with a weak prospect is the Commodities sector in the 1 to 4-day period with a computed strength of 1.79. The models expect the ETF $DBC to finish the lowest in this group.

$USD – estimated strength
$DBC – estimated strength
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China Strong

I was going through my daily routine of reading other blog sites. While on one of my favorites, Slope of Hope, I noticed several comments from Slopers about how they are selling China by selling the ETF $YINN, Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X Shares. So I decided to see what the models said about $YINN and its counterpart inverse $YANG, Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3X Shares. The models disagree. The models say buy $YINN. The models expect a 10-15% increase in $YINN over the next 30 trading days. Below is the Estimated Percentage Change chart for $YINN and $YANG with data subscribers to ETF Expectations get in a spreadsheet. We’ll see.

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Are You Ready For The Coming Recession?

An old financial adage states that the stock market’s action leads the economy by six months. Which begs the question, where will the economy be in November? Here is a chart using experimental models for predicting out 180 days. The graph shows the strength prediction for $QQQ; the red line on the chart is the mean average. The value is somewhere around 3.85, which is well into the bearish zone. The models call for the overall U.S. markets to remain bearish through the end of November. The correction is happening now; what are you doing to survive financially?

Let’s look at last night’s sector strength chart based on the corresponding ETF averages; this week’s overall average is still bearish with a value of 3.88, which is down slightly from last week’s 3.98.

For the fourth week in a row, the Technology sector has a bearish forecast for the next 30 trading days, with an average score of 3.07. Next week, the Consumer sector has a poor prospect; the computed average is 2.4. In this sector, $XLP may have the worst results.

The Energy sector continues to have the best short-term prediction. This week, the models predict it to occur from June 21 through 27 with a computed average of 5.8. The estimated best ETF in that sector for that period is $AMLP. The models also have the Real Estate sector recovering starting in the middle of June, and as I reported on my blog Friday morning, I am having a hard time believing the models.