Based on the probability models I have developed, several bond ETFs have shown numbers that indicate a robust positive move may be coming. So presently, I am tracking $UBT (ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury) and $LQD (iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond) because they have the strongest numbers.
These models have a scope of six to seven trading days. Therefore I assume that the move, while positive, will be very short.
Well, if it hasn’t already, the DJIA is just about to go below the Trump-era high mark. So any recovery we’ve seen with the Biden administration is completely lost.
The models look out 30 trading days, so they are now predicting strength numbers through the beginning of November. Let’s take a look. For the overall 30-day period, the models remain entirely in the bear camp. Friday night’s numbers fell again from the previous week’s average. This week the average is 3.21; last week, it was 3.39. For the fourth week in a row, no sector with an average above 4.5 in the bullish zone.
The sector with the highest score, Health Care, is not close to getting a bullish call with a score of 4.03.
The sector with the worst score is Technology, with an average of 2.16. And the Bond sector continues to get awful scores; this week, Bonds average fell to 2.41. Another sector in the two’s is Commodities with a score of 2.74.
I think the news from FedEx on Friday morning is a significant indicator of the market’s future. One of the greatest Stock Market prognosticators of all time, Charles Dow, used the Transportation index as his leading indicator for the overall market. FedEx is one of the top components of the Transportation index.
In the overall 30-day period, the models remain entirely in the bear camp. Friday night’s numbers show the overall average fell from last week’s 3.46 to 3.39. For the third week in a row, no sector is above 4.5, which is the bullish zone.
The sector with the highest 30-day average is Energy. The models score this at 4.44, just below the neutral mark of 4.5.
The sector with the worst score is Bonds. With an average of 2.48, And the Technology sector continues to get awful scores, this week Tech has an average of 2.62.