Sectors In Particular

I Hesitate To Say It, But Natural Gas Should Be Positive Next Week.

The probability charts for $UNG and $BOIL are decisive for a positive move for this coming week. Both ETFs have a bottoming William’s %R pattern, which is generally strong.

$BOIL has a strong indicator in a function I developed called Percentage Change for RSI (PCR). PCR calculates a daily percentage and then computes the relative strength (RSI) for all the changes. A high positive PCR number, which $BOIL had from Thursday’s and Friday’s closing numbers, was very high. Caution: $BOIL has been called a widow-maker of an ETF. Its wild gyrations have caught many investors with their pants down or on too tight. I have made money on $BOIL but have definitely lost more, expecting too much from it.

And $UNG has a strong PCR, too, just not as strong. The strongest indicator for $UNG is a stochastic cross-over function. This function tracks a slow and fast stochastic when both have been falling, and suddenly the faster one goes up to cross the slower one; a buy signal is generated. The probability value for the buy signal based on $UNG’s cross-over is very high.

Last thought on these two ETFs – next week, a major winter storm is forecasted for central and northeast U.S. Winter storms are always a catalyst for strong upward price movement in natural gas. We’ll see.

As for my last weekend’s call for the SP500 ($SPY and $IVV), I made some money, and I hope you did too.

Update on Monday, Jan 30′ 23, at 8:15 AM – this looks like a bad call with $BOIL down more than 10% and $UNG down more than 6%.

Markets Overall

Post-Election Post-CPI Expectations.

The post-election and post-CPI report has sent the markets soaring to only 7% of their all-time high. And as a result of the higher numbers, the models have gotten more positive. The overall average is 4.68, and is in the bullish zone for the first time in several months.

The Energy sector, a leader in these charts for a long time, has fallen to near the bottom. The Energy sector score is 4.22, ranking it second to worse.

The models expect the Commodities sector to perform the worst. Its average score is 4.22.

The US Stock market has the best overall score coming in at 5.19. The models expect the US Markets to perform well in the first week of December.

Surprisingly to me, coming in second is the Real Estate sector, with a score of 5.06. The estimated best period for Real Estate is next week.

Markets Overall Uncategorized

Stock Market Is Still Looking Down

For the next thirty trading days, the models predict the overall market to resume its downward trend. The average for all sectors for the 6-week period has fallen from 4.22 to 3.92.

As it has been for the past several weeks, the sector with the highest score is Energy. But, this week Energy’s average fell to 4.83 from last week’s 5.07.

The models say that the Technology sector should perform poorly. They score Tech at 1.55 starting on Monday. In this sector, $ROM may have the worst results. Coming in second with a weak prospect is the Consumer sector for the same period, with a computed average of 1.58. The models expect the ETF $XHB to finish the worst in this group.

Markets Overall Uncategorized

Some Sectors Are Looking Up

September was a tough month for the markets. From what I have read, most prognosticators are looking for a continuation through October, especially this coming Monday.

For the overall 30-day period, the models remain entirely in the bear camp. But Friday night’s numbers are up from the previous week‘s average. This week the average is 3.53; last week, it was 3.21. For the fifth week in a row, there is no sector with an average above 4.5 in the bullish zone.

The sector with the highest score, Biotechnology, almost gets a Bullish score. An average of 4.46 is barely below the neutral mark of 4.5. And for the later part of October and early November, Biotech gets daily scores in the 5’s. Last week’s top sector was Health Care. Health Care fell a bit with an average of 4.36. Health Care also has some bullish daily numbers at the end of the 30-day period.

What caught my eye was the strong green day occurring this coming Tuesday for Precious Metals and Miners. But, I prefer a continuation of similar numbers to make any judgment, and since 6.8 is standing as the sole bullish number for that period, I will ignore it.

The sector with the worst score is Energy, with an average of 2.90. And like last week, Commodities average remains in the 2’s with a score of 2.99.

Markets Overall Uncategorized

The Stock Market Highs Are Lost.

Well, if it hasn’t already, the DJIA is just about to go below the Trump-era high mark. So any recovery we’ve seen with the Biden administration is completely lost.

The models look out 30 trading days, so they are now predicting strength numbers through the beginning of November. Let’s take a look. For the overall 30-day period, the models remain entirely in the bear camp. Friday night’s numbers fell again from the previous week’s average. This week the average is 3.21; last week, it was 3.39. For the fourth week in a row, no sector with an average above 4.5 in the bullish zone.

The sector with the highest score, Health Care, is not close to getting a bullish call with a score of 4.03.

The sector with the worst score is Technology, with an average of 2.16. And the Bond sector continues to get awful scores; this week, Bonds average fell to 2.41. Another sector in the two’s is Commodities with a score of 2.74.

Markets Overall

Despite The End Of Week Bounce, The Models Remain Bearish

A good recovery in the markets from Wednesday on. I didn’t expect that to happen. The models suggest that the buying should continue on Monday and maybe into Tuesday. But for the overall 30-day period, the models remain fully in the bear camp. Friday night’s numbers show the overall average up slightly at 3.69 from last week’s 3.46. And like last week’s, no sectors show an average in the bullish zone. The bullish zone Sept 10 2022is above 4.5.

For the second week in a row, the Biotech sector has the best 30-day score; but it is a bearish 4.29. The models are still predicting some good numbers this week and early October. The models expect the Real Estate sector to perform well over the next two to three weeks.

The sector with the worst score is Commodities. With an average of 2.88, I don’t expect much good news coming out of that sector for the next six weeks. And the Technology sector is showing bearish numbers for most of the 30 days in the study.


Technology and Commodities Have The Worst Forecast

The Technology sector has the most bearish forecast for the next 30 trading days, with an average score of 2.70. In this sector, $USD may have the lowest results. Coming in second with a weak prospect is the Commodities sector in the 1 to 4-day period with a computed strength of 1.79. The models expect the ETF $DBC to finish the lowest in this group.

$USD – estimated strength
$DBC – estimated strength