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Markets Overall Uncategorized

The Stock Market Highs Are Lost.

Well, if it hasn’t already, the DJIA is just about to go below the Trump-era high mark. So any recovery we’ve seen with the Biden administration is completely lost.

The models look out 30 trading days, so they are now predicting strength numbers through the beginning of November. Let’s take a look. For the overall 30-day period, the models remain entirely in the bear camp. Friday night’s numbers fell again from the previous week’s average. This week the average is 3.21; last week, it was 3.39. For the fourth week in a row, no sector with an average above 4.5 in the bullish zone.

The sector with the highest score, Health Care, is not close to getting a bullish call with a score of 4.03.

The sector with the worst score is Technology, with an average of 2.16. And the Bond sector continues to get awful scores; this week, Bonds average fell to 2.41. Another sector in the two’s is Commodities with a score of 2.74.

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Sectors In Particular

China – Still Seeing Red

After reading a negative article in yesterday’s WSJ, I decided to see what my models say about the Chinese ETFs they track. The models agree, they, too, are down on the Chinese stock market.

Looking at the chart above, the two inverse ETFs, $FXP and $YANG stay in the bullish zone, the area above 4.5, for most of the tracking period. While the other four ETFs, non-inverse, remain bearish. There is one small period, from Sept. 18 through the 20th, in which both camps flip to the other side, but otherwise, they are calling for a continuing bearish Chinese stock market.

For more ETF picks go to https://mcverryreport.com/forecast

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Markets Overall

Stock Market Models Get More Bearish

The overall 30-day score, which is the average of all the sectors, has fallen. This week’s average is 4.07, down from last week’s average of 4.22. So the models are still bearish.

For the second week in a row, the Energy sector is in the number one spot with the most bullish number. Energy’s 30-day average score is 5.33, up from 5.12. Look for a peak during the first week of September. The Commodities sector comes in second with an average score of 4.57, slightly above the neutral number of 4.5. The models have Commodities with some strength during the second and third week of September.

The three sectors at the bottom of the list are the US Stock Market with a score of 3.81, the Technology sector scoring 3.78, and Emerging Markets with a score of 3.68.

So, like the past six weeks, the models are bearish, except for Energy.

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Markets Overall

Outlook: Rough and Tumble Through The Middle of September

Let’s look at last night’s sector strength chart; the overall average has declined to 3.87 from the previous week’s 4.12. With the bear/bull line at 4.5, the overall score for the next six weeks fell further into the bearish zone.

This week’s sector with the worst score is the Financial sector, scoring 2.58. Which is followed by the Real Estate sector. Real Estate’s 30-day score is 3.16

The Biotechnology sector moved from the second best to first by getting a score of 4.83. Which is just bearly into the bullish zone. The Energy sector, which was the best last week, fell to fourth; it scored 4.27, which is bearish but does show some strength from August 17 until the end of the month. The Bond sector moved to second place and is in the bullish zone with a score of 4.54.

Precious Metals and Miners score 4.43; Tuesday could be interesting for this sector. Health Care has the fifth highest score at 3.94, followed by Non-US Stock Markets at 3.92. Technology is next with a score of 3.89, US Stocks at 3.81, Commodities score 3.76, Emerging Markets record a 3.60, and the Consumer sector’s 30-day average score is 3.58

So, like the past four weeks, the models generally expect a downside to the markets through August until September 19. The one exception is Biotechnology.

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Markets Overall Sectors In Particular

Got Gold? I Hope Not

Using data from tonight’s ETF Expectation report, I created the above chart, which shows the expected strength moves for four gold-related ETFs. Of the four, only one, $GLL, has an up-trend. $GLL is an inverse ETF. So the models expect gold to continue the downward track it has been exhibiting all year.

The models are bearish on all Precious Metal ETFs, sans the inverse ones.

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Markets Overall

All 13 Sectors Tracked By My Models Remain Bearish For The Next 30 Trading Days

Based on the corresponding ETF averages, let’s look at last night’s sector strength chart; the overall average remains in the bear market territory with a value of 3.20.

Let’s look at the individual charts for each of the thirteen sectors tracked, starting with the worst, the Commodities sector. Last night’s average for Commodities is 2.56. Except for the first two days of next week, Commodities strength remains well below the neutral score of 4.5. Next is Technology, with a score of 2.74. Tech had been getting the poorest numbers for the past three weeks. The Bond sector is the third worse sector of the thirteen. Bonds score 2.76. After Bonds is the Financial sector with a score of 3.02 and is closely followed by the Precious Metals and Miners, Metals and Miners score is 3.03. Up next are U.S. Stocks, with an average score of 3.21. Real Estate comes in seventh, scoring 3.33 and is closely followed by the Consumer sector with an average of 3.35. Non-U.S. stocks are next, scoring 3.40. With Emerging Markets not too far behind at 3.51. The Energy has the highest daily score at 7.1; predicted for this coming Monday, but its average is a weak 3.65. The top two sectors are Health Care, scoring 3.74, and Biotechnology, almost at neutral with a score of 4.45. As you can see in the chart, the models have Biotech swooning from the end of July through the second week of August.

So all thirteen sectors tracked by the models remain bearish.

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Uncategorized

China Strong

I was going through my daily routine of reading other blog sites. While on one of my favorites, Slope of Hope, I noticed several comments from Slopers about how they are selling China by selling the ETF $YINN, Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X Shares. So I decided to see what the models said about $YINN and its counterpart inverse $YANG, Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3X Shares. The models disagree. The models say buy $YINN. The models expect a 10-15% increase in $YINN over the next 30 trading days. Below is the Estimated Percentage Change chart for $YINN and $YANG with data subscribers to ETF Expectations get in a spreadsheet. We’ll see.

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Markets Overall Sectors In Particular

Wait Until August

Based on the corresponding ETF averages, let’s look at last night’s sector strength chart; the overall average remains a solid bearish value of 3.12.

A review of the individual charts has only two charts interesting to me; they are Biotechnology and Health Care. What catches my eye is that they both show moderate bullishness at the start of August. Here is Biotech with an overall average of 4.16. See the dip in the second week of July; the models predict its strength to the bullish side from there. Likewise, Health Care has a weaker average of 3.12, showing a similar pattern. As for the rest of the sectors, Energy has an average of 3.62 and shows a flat pattern. Precious Metals and Miners follow Energy with an average of 3.5. Next is Non-US stocks with a computed score of 3.27. This is followed by Commodities, averaging a value of 3.22, with a predicted up-trend line. Bonds are up next with a value of 2.95. Then Real Estate at 2.85. Technology moves up to the tenth slot with a computed value of 2.8. Slipping into eleventh is the Consumer sector with a score of 2.62. Then US Stocks at 2.56. And finally, the Financial sector finishes the group with a low score of 2.48.

So all thirteen sectors tracked by the models remain bearish.

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Markets Overall

Will The Stock Market Madness End?

Let’s look at last night’s sector strength chart based on the corresponding ETF averages; this week’s overall average has a solid bearish value of 3.11. Do you see the light at the end of this bear market tunnel? I do. I see the oncoming market crash.

Let’s review the individual charts. The best is the Precious Metals and Miners, with an average 30-day score of 4.14. The Energy sector follows with a score of 4.02. The third sector is Commodities, scoring 3.64. Following Commodities is the Bond sector with an average of 3.5. The Non-US Stock Market follows with an average of 3.47 and Emerging Markets with 3.43. Seventh on the list is the Biotechnology sector scoring an even 3.0. Then Health Care follows with a score of 2.85. The Financial sector closely follows Health Care by scoring 2.82. Up next is Real Estate, scoring 2.71. And the last three are the Consumer sector, with 2.4, US Stocks, with 2.34, and the Technology sector, with 2.16.

So all thirteen sectors tracked by the models are bearish.

For individual ETF picks go to http://mcverryreport.com/forecast

Categories
Markets Overall Sectors In Particular

Energy, The Last Bullish Sector, Is Showing Signs of Weakess

The above chart is red except for the line representing the Energy sector. But even Energy is starting to show bear numbers too.

For individual ETF picks for the next 30 trading days go to http://mcverryreport.com/forecast