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Markets Overall

Outlook: Rough and Tumble Through The Middle of September

Let’s look at last night’s sector strength chart; the overall average has declined to 3.87 from the previous week’s 4.12. With the bear/bull line at 4.5, the overall score for the next six weeks fell further into the bearish zone.

This week’s sector with the worst score is the Financial sector, scoring 2.58. Which is followed by the Real Estate sector. Real Estate’s 30-day score is 3.16

The Biotechnology sector moved from the second best to first by getting a score of 4.83. Which is just bearly into the bullish zone. The Energy sector, which was the best last week, fell to fourth; it scored 4.27, which is bearish but does show some strength from August 17 until the end of the month. The Bond sector moved to second place and is in the bullish zone with a score of 4.54.

Precious Metals and Miners score 4.43; Tuesday could be interesting for this sector. Health Care has the fifth highest score at 3.94, followed by Non-US Stock Markets at 3.92. Technology is next with a score of 3.89, US Stocks at 3.81, Commodities score 3.76, Emerging Markets record a 3.60, and the Consumer sector’s 30-day average score is 3.58

So, like the past four weeks, the models generally expect a downside to the markets through August until September 19. The one exception is Biotechnology.

Categories
Markets Overall Sectors In Particular

Got Gold? I Hope Not

Using data from tonight’s ETF Expectation report, I created the above chart, which shows the expected strength moves for four gold-related ETFs. Of the four, only one, $GLL, has an up-trend. $GLL is an inverse ETF. So the models expect gold to continue the downward track it has been exhibiting all year.

The models are bearish on all Precious Metal ETFs, sans the inverse ones.

Categories
Markets Overall

Stock Market Call: Two Weeks Up, Four Weeks Down.

Let’s look at last night’s sector strength chart; the overall average has improved from last week’s 3.10 to last night’s 3.98. The models are still calling the market to remain bearish up to September 2. As you will see, some of the sectors have some bullishness to them for the next two weeks, but all sectors have bearish numbers through the end of August.

Let us start with the strongest sectors first. Energy and Bonds both have an average score of 4.53, Energy sector has strong numbers through the first week of August. Unlike Energy, the Bonds numbers are not as strong, but both sectors fall off through the end of August. Biotechnology scores a 4.48. Biotech is one of a few sectors with strength numbers that return to the bullish territory at the end of the 90 days. The Consumer sector comes in at 4.14.

As you will see, the remaining charts have a similar pattern to the Energy chart, strong through the first couple of weeks of August, then falling off. Next is the U.S. Stock Market at 4.13. And, Technology with a score of 4.12 with a considerable dropoff at the end of August. The Financial sector scores a 3.82. With Health Care following at 3.80. Non-U.S. Stocks, scoring 3.78, barely makes it into the bullish zone next week. Both Emerging Markets and Real Estate score 3.76. Coming in at twelfth is the Commodities sector with a score of 3.70. And finally, we get to the Precious Metals and Miners with an overall average of 3.23.

So, like the past two weeks, the models expect a downside to the markets through August.

Categories
Markets Overall

Stock Market Downside: No End In Sight

Let’s look at last night’s sector strength chart; despite Friday’s bounce, the overall average have fallen deeper into the bear territory with a score of 3.10. This is worse than last week’s 3.20. Friday was a classic dead cat bounce. With one exception, a bounce usually has a landing spot – the models don’t have one in the near future. And these models say that next week will see a sell-off much stronger than we have seen for the past several months. Are you ready?

Likewise, the individual sector averages are weaker too. No sector average is better than a four, remember a 4.5 is neutral. Let’s look at the individual charts for each of the thirteen sectors tracked, starting with the so-called best, the Biotechnology sector. Last night’s average for Biotech is 3.85. Next is Bonds, with a score of 3.71. The Energy sector is the third best sector of the thirteen. Energy scores 3.68. After Energy is the Technology sector with a score of 3.43 and is closely followed by the Consumer sector, this sector score is 3.39. Up next are U.S. Stocks, with an average score of 3.01. Health Care comes in seventh, scoring 3.00, and is closely followed by the Emerging Market sector with an average of 2.93. Precious Metals and Miners are next at 2.91, which is followed by Non – U.S. Stocks with a score of 2.88. And finally, the last three are the Commodity Sector at 2.56, Real Estate at 2.50 and the Financial sector at 2.44.

So the market action on Friday was your classic dead cat bounce, and we should see even more downside to the markets through August.

Categories
Markets Overall Sectors In Particular

Wait Until August

Based on the corresponding ETF averages, let’s look at last night’s sector strength chart; the overall average remains a solid bearish value of 3.12.

A review of the individual charts has only two charts interesting to me; they are Biotechnology and Health Care. What catches my eye is that they both show moderate bullishness at the start of August. Here is Biotech with an overall average of 4.16. See the dip in the second week of July; the models predict its strength to the bullish side from there. Likewise, Health Care has a weaker average of 3.12, showing a similar pattern. As for the rest of the sectors, Energy has an average of 3.62 and shows a flat pattern. Precious Metals and Miners follow Energy with an average of 3.5. Next is Non-US stocks with a computed score of 3.27. This is followed by Commodities, averaging a value of 3.22, with a predicted up-trend line. Bonds are up next with a value of 2.95. Then Real Estate at 2.85. Technology moves up to the tenth slot with a computed value of 2.8. Slipping into eleventh is the Consumer sector with a score of 2.62. Then US Stocks at 2.56. And finally, the Financial sector finishes the group with a low score of 2.48.

So all thirteen sectors tracked by the models remain bearish.

Categories
Markets Overall

Technology and Precious Metals Look The Most Bearish.

The Technology sector has a bearish forecast for the next 30 trading days, with an average score of 3.29. Also, the Technology sector has an underperforming prospect in the 4 to 7 day period; the computed strength is 2.24. In this sector, $XLK may have the lowest results. Coming in second with a weak prospect is the Prec. Metals & Miners sector for the same period with a computed strength of 2.36. The models expect the ETF $DGP to finish the worst in this group.

The Energy sector has a good short-term prospect, which should occur in 21 to 24 days with a computed average of 6.16. The estimated top ETF in that category for that period is $BOIL.

For more ETF picks go to HTTP://mcverryreport.com/forecast