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Markets Overall Uncategorized

Stock Market Is Still Looking Down

For the next thirty trading days, the models predict the overall market to resume its downward trend. The average for all sectors for the 6-week period has fallen from 4.22 to 3.92.

As it has been for the past several weeks, the sector with the highest score is Energy. But, this week Energy’s average fell to 4.83 from last week’s 5.07.

The models say that the Technology sector should perform poorly. They score Tech at 1.55 starting on Monday. In this sector, $ROM may have the worst results. Coming in second with a weak prospect is the Consumer sector for the same period, with a computed average of 1.58. The models expect the ETF $XHB to finish the worst in this group.

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Markets Overall

Don’t Fear The Stock Market Reaper

Like the stock market, the average for all sectors in the 30-day period, has gotten more bullish. This week the average is 4.32, which is still in the bearish zone, up considerably from where the average has been for the past two months. So things should be looking up, and as Jeff Hirsch, The Almanac Trader, recently wrote about, November during Mid-Term Elections is the top month for NASDAQ stocks.

The sector with the highest score is Energy, with an average of 5.07; the top pick in this group is $GUSH. The U.S. Stock Market is the second strongest sector, with a 30-day score of 5.03. The Health Care sector is showing bullish numbers in the short term, 17 days out. In this group, $RXL has the most robust numbers.

The bottom three sectors are Technology at 3.67, Bonds at 3.47, and Emerging Markets at 3.25.

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Markets Overall

The Energy Sector Has The Strongest Numbers

Looking at the overall 30-day period, the models have gotten more bearish. This week the average is 3.70; last week, it was 4.11. This week only two sectors have bullish averages for the 30 days.

The sector with the highest score is Energy, with an average of 5.27, up from last week’s number of 4.68. Falling to second is Biotechnology, with a 30-day score of 4.81.

The bottom three sectors are Technology at 3.14, Emerging Markets at 2.70, and Bonds at 2.60.

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Markets Overall Uncategorized

The Stock Market Highs Are Lost.

Well, if it hasn’t already, the DJIA is just about to go below the Trump-era high mark. So any recovery we’ve seen with the Biden administration is completely lost.

The models look out 30 trading days, so they are now predicting strength numbers through the beginning of November. Let’s take a look. For the overall 30-day period, the models remain entirely in the bear camp. Friday night’s numbers fell again from the previous week’s average. This week the average is 3.21; last week, it was 3.39. For the fourth week in a row, no sector with an average above 4.5 in the bullish zone.

The sector with the highest score, Health Care, is not close to getting a bullish call with a score of 4.03.

The sector with the worst score is Technology, with an average of 2.16. And the Bond sector continues to get awful scores; this week, Bonds average fell to 2.41. Another sector in the two’s is Commodities with a score of 2.74.

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Markets Overall

Bonds Have The Worst Outlook

I think the news from FedEx on Friday morning is a significant indicator of the market’s future. One of the greatest Stock Market prognosticators of all time, Charles Dow, used the Transportation index as his leading indicator for the overall market. FedEx is one of the top components of the Transportation index.

In the overall 30-day period, the models remain entirely in the bear camp. Friday night’s numbers show the overall average fell from last week’s 3.46 to 3.39. For the third week in a row, no sector is above 4.5, which is the bullish zone.

The sector with the highest 30-day average is Energy. The models score this at 4.44, just below the neutral mark of 4.5.

The sector with the worst score is Bonds. With an average of 2.48, And the Technology sector continues to get awful scores, this week Tech has an average of 2.62.

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Markets Overall

Despite The End Of Week Bounce, The Models Remain Bearish

A good recovery in the markets from Wednesday on. I didn’t expect that to happen. The models suggest that the buying should continue on Monday and maybe into Tuesday. But for the overall 30-day period, the models remain fully in the bear camp. Friday night’s numbers show the overall average up slightly at 3.69 from last week’s 3.46. And like last week’s, no sectors show an average in the bullish zone. The bullish zone Sept 10 2022is above 4.5.

For the second week in a row, the Biotech sector has the best 30-day score; but it is a bearish 4.29. The models are still predicting some good numbers this week and early October. The models expect the Real Estate sector to perform well over the next two to three weeks.

The sector with the worst score is Commodities. With an average of 2.88, I don’t expect much good news coming out of that sector for the next six weeks. And the Technology sector is showing bearish numbers for most of the 30 days in the study.

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Markets Overall Uncategorized

All Sectors Indicate The Sell-Off To Continue.

There was a heck of a sell-off this week. I hope you didn’t get caught in the sucker’s rally on Friday morning. I sort of did; I picked up three inverse ETFs early in the week and set up some 5% trailing stops on them; Friday morning, the stops were executed for a gain, but by Friday afternoon, I would have been better off if the sales didn’t execute.

Based on the models, the sell-off will continue through October. The overall 30-day score, the average of all the sectors, remains unchanged. This week’s average fell dramatically to 3.46 from last week’s 4.07. So the models are very bearish.

No sectors are showing an average in the bullish zone. The bullish zone is above 4.5.

The Energy sector’s average, which had been strong for the previous three weeks, took a big step down to a score of 3.69.

The Biotech sector is the only sector showing green on a daily basis, but even its 30-day score is bearish at 4.30. The models predict some good numbers start in October.

The sector with the worst score is Technology. With an average of 2.66, I don’t expect much good news coming out of that sector for the next six weeks.

And watch out for some bad numbers this coming week in Commodities and the U.S. Stock Market.

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Markets Overall

Stock Market Models Get More Bearish

The overall 30-day score, which is the average of all the sectors, has fallen. This week’s average is 4.07, down from last week’s average of 4.22. So the models are still bearish.

For the second week in a row, the Energy sector is in the number one spot with the most bullish number. Energy’s 30-day average score is 5.33, up from 5.12. Look for a peak during the first week of September. The Commodities sector comes in second with an average score of 4.57, slightly above the neutral number of 4.5. The models have Commodities with some strength during the second and third week of September.

The three sectors at the bottom of the list are the US Stock Market with a score of 3.81, the Technology sector scoring 3.78, and Emerging Markets with a score of 3.68.

So, like the past six weeks, the models are bearish, except for Energy.

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Markets Overall

Outlook: Rough and Tumble Through The Middle of September

Let’s look at last night’s sector strength chart; the overall average has declined to 3.87 from the previous week’s 4.12. With the bear/bull line at 4.5, the overall score for the next six weeks fell further into the bearish zone.

This week’s sector with the worst score is the Financial sector, scoring 2.58. Which is followed by the Real Estate sector. Real Estate’s 30-day score is 3.16

The Biotechnology sector moved from the second best to first by getting a score of 4.83. Which is just bearly into the bullish zone. The Energy sector, which was the best last week, fell to fourth; it scored 4.27, which is bearish but does show some strength from August 17 until the end of the month. The Bond sector moved to second place and is in the bullish zone with a score of 4.54.

Precious Metals and Miners score 4.43; Tuesday could be interesting for this sector. Health Care has the fifth highest score at 3.94, followed by Non-US Stock Markets at 3.92. Technology is next with a score of 3.89, US Stocks at 3.81, Commodities score 3.76, Emerging Markets record a 3.60, and the Consumer sector’s 30-day average score is 3.58

So, like the past four weeks, the models generally expect a downside to the markets through August until September 19. The one exception is Biotechnology.

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Markets Overall

The Models Expect One More Bullish Week For The Stock Market.

Let’s look at last night’s sector strength chart; the overall average has improved to 4.12 from the previous week’s 3.98 If you watched last week’s video, you know the models called for the markets to be up this past week, and this coming week. Well, so far, so good.

The Emerging Markets sector has the worst overall average, scoring 3.58. The Precious Metals & Miners sector has an underperforming prospect. The computed strength is 3.76. The models are looking for positive pop next week, followed by a continuous downtrend through August and the first week of September.

The Energy sector has the best overall score of 5.14 and a good short-term prospect, which should occur in 8 to 11 days scoring 6.29. The Biotechnology chart is still the only chart showing an uptrend. The problem with the trend is that it remains in the bearish zone for most of the 30 days. It does get bullish the first week of September.

So, like the past three weeks, the models expect a downside to the markets through August.