The probability charts for $UNG and $BOIL are decisive for a positive move for this coming week. Both ETFs have a bottoming William’s %R pattern, which is generally strong.
$BOIL has a strong indicator in a function I developed called Percentage Change for RSI (PCR). PCR calculates a daily percentage and then computes the relative strength (RSI) for all the changes. A high positive PCR number, which $BOIL had from Thursday’s and Friday’s closing numbers, was very high. Caution: $BOIL has been called a widow-maker of an ETF. Its wild gyrations have caught many investors with their pants down or on too tight. I have made money on $BOIL but have definitely lost more, expecting too much from it.
And $UNG has a strong PCR, too, just not as strong. The strongest indicator for $UNG is a stochastic cross-over function. This function tracks a slow and fast stochastic when both have been falling, and suddenly the faster one goes up to cross the slower one; a buy signal is generated. The probability value for the buy signal based on $UNG’s cross-over is very high.
Last thought on these two ETFs – next week, a major winter storm is forecasted for central and northeast U.S. Winter storms are always a catalyst for strong upward price movement in natural gas. We’ll see.
As for my last weekend’s call for the SP500 ($SPY and $IVV), I made some money, and I hope you did too.
Update on Monday, Jan 30′ 23, at 8:15 AM – this looks like a bad call with $BOIL down more than 10% and $UNG down more than 6%.